Central Bank Gold Buying Fell 21% in 2025

Overview

Central bank gold buying is usually described as an accelerating flight from the dollar led by the BRICS economies. The 2025 figures describe something different in both direction and cast.

Official sector purchases totalled 863.3 tonnes for the year — a 21% decline on 2024 and the lowest annual total since 2021. Buying cooled substantially rather than setting records.

The largest buyer was the National Bank of Poland, which added 102 tonnes to reach 550 tonnes, with gold now at 28% of its total reserves. The People's Bank of China added 27 tonnes across the whole year, including just 3 tonnes in the fourth quarter.

That ranking is awkward for the de-dollarisation narrative. The most aggressive accumulator of gold among central banks is a European Union and NATO member, buying nearly four times as much as China.

Buying Fell 21% to 863.3 Tonnes

The headline figure moved in the opposite direction to the prevailing story. Official sector net purchases came to 863.3 tonnes in 2025, down 21% from the previous year and the lowest annual total since 2021.

That is a substantial deceleration, not a marginal one. Roughly 230 tonnes of annual demand disappeared from the official sector in a single year.

The most likely explanation is price rather than a change of strategy. Gold appreciated sharply over the period, and central banks are price-sensitive buyers — they have mandates to manage reserves prudently, not to accumulate a commodity regardless of cost. Buying less of a more expensive asset is ordinary reserve management.

Still Far Above Historical Norms

The decline should not be read as the end of the trend, because the baseline it fell toward is much lower than the current level.

Average annual official sector purchases between 2010 and 2021 ran at about 473 tonnes. At 863.3 tonnes, 2025 was still comfortably above that — roughly 80% higher than the long-run average despite being the weakest year since 2021.

Both statements are therefore true simultaneously, and reporting tends to choose whichever suits the argument. Buying cooled significantly year on year, and central banks continue to accumulate gold at rates far above the historical norm.

Poland Was the Largest Buyer

The National Bank of Poland added 102 tonnes in 2025, more than any other central bank, lifting its reserves to 550 tonnes.

Gold now accounts for 28% of Poland's total reserves, and the bank raised its target allocation from 20% to 30% in October — meaning it is buying toward an explicit, publicly stated destination rather than opportunistically.

Poland is a European Union member and a NATO member. It is not part of the BRICS bloc, is not subject to Western sanctions, and has no evident interest in undermining the dollar system. Its accumulation is the largest in the world, and it fits no part of the decoupling story.

China Bought 27 Tonnes

The People's Bank of China added 27 tonnes across the full year, including just 3 tonnes in the fourth quarter — roughly a quarter of Poland's total.

China's reported gold reserves stand at about 2,306 tonnes, which represents almost 9% of its total reserves. That share is far below the levels held by major Western holders, several of which hold well over half their reserves in gold.

China's official figures have long been treated with scepticism, and reported holdings may understate actual ones. But the analysis available is necessarily built on what is reported, and what is reported for 2025 is modest accumulation and a gold share that remains a small fraction of total reserves.

Why That Breaks the Decoupling Narrative

The de-dollarisation account requires sanctioned or non-aligned economies to be leading the shift into gold. The buyer list does not support it.

Poland leads by a wide margin. Brazil re-entered the market with 43 tonnes between September and November, taking its holdings to 172 tonnes. Turkey added 27 tonnes. China added 27. These are geographically and politically varied, and the largest by some distance is inside both the EU and NATO.

A more parsimonious explanation covers all of them: gold is an asset with no issuer and no counterparty, which makes it attractive to any central bank concerned about instability — financial, geopolitical or regional. That motivation does not require hostility to the dollar, and it explains why an EU member and a BRICS member can be doing the same thing for different reasons.

Why Poland Raised Its Target to 30%

Poland's decision to raise its gold allocation target from 20% to 30% is the clearest statement of intent from any central bank in this period, and its reasoning is regional rather than monetary.

Poland borders Ukraine and Belarus. A central bank in that position is managing reserves against scenarios involving conflict, disrupted financial infrastructure and constrained access to foreign-held assets — circumstances in which an asset physically held domestically has properties nothing else does.

That is a security calculation rather than a bet on the dollar's decline. It also explains why Poland is buying steadily toward a stated allocation while price-sensitive buyers elsewhere slowed: a target-driven programme continues regardless of whether gold happens to be expensive.

What a 21% Decline Signals

The cooling tells you something about how central banks actually behave, and it argues against reading their purchases as an ideological statement.

Buyers who were converting reserves out of dollars as a matter of strategic principle would be relatively insensitive to price. The observed behaviour — substantially less buying in a year when gold became considerably more expensive — is the behaviour of institutions managing a portfolio to a cost.

This distinction matters for anyone extrapolating the trend. Strategic reallocation continues regardless of price and implies sustained future demand. Price-sensitive accumulation slows when gold rises and resumes when it falls, which describes a support under the market rather than a one-way flow out of the dollar.

How to Read Reserve-Share Claims

Claims that the dollar's share of global reserves has collapsed below particular thresholds circulate widely and should be checked against the actual IMF data rather than repeated.

The dollar's share of allocated foreign exchange reserves has declined gradually over two decades, and it remains the dominant reserve currency by a substantial margin — well above the levels sometimes asserted. Gradual erosion from a dominant position is a real and slow phenomenon; it is not the same as displacement.

Two further points are usually lost. Reserve shares move with exchange rates as well as with buying and selling, so a stronger dollar mechanically raises its measured share without any central bank transacting. And gold's rising share of reserves partly reflects gold's price appreciation rather than tonnes being added — a holding that has not changed by a single ounce can grow substantially as a share of the portfolio.

Conclusion

Central bank gold buying cooled sharply in 2025. Official sector purchases fell 21% to 863.3 tonnes, the lowest annual total since 2021 — while remaining roughly 80% above the 2010 to 2021 average of 473 tonnes. Both facts are true and they are usually reported separately.

The buyer list undermines the story most often attached to this data. Poland led with 102 tonnes, taking gold to 28% of its reserves against a target raised to 30%. China added 27 tonnes, including 3 in the final quarter. The most aggressive accumulator of gold in the world is an EU and NATO member.

The simplest reading covers every buyer without invoking a bloc. Gold has no issuer and no counterparty, which makes it attractive to any central bank managing against instability — and a country bordering an active war has reasons for that which have nothing to do with the dollar.

The 21% decline also indicates these are price-sensitive institutions rather than ideological ones. They bought less when gold got expensive, which is what reserve managers do, and not what a one-way flight from the dollar would look like.

Data Source and Attribution

World Gold CouncilWGC Central Bank StatisticsKitco News

Total official sector purchases, the year-on-year change, individual central bank purchase volumes, reserve totals and allocation targets come from World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends reporting for full year 2025 and associated central bank gold statistics. The 2010-2021 annual average is as published by the same source. Reserve currency composition statements reflect IMF COFER data, which measures allocated reserves and is affected by exchange rate movements as well as transactions.

FactsFigs reviews, cleans, and cross-checks every source dataset before shaping it into a data story. Each visualization is created and designed in FactsFigs Design Studio — an internal tool developed and owned by FactsFigs — and is the original work of a FactsFigs author, not an AI-generated copy of any existing graphic. Individual assets within a visual may or may not be produced with AI tools, but the design of the visual itself is solely FactsFigs' own.

Figures are estimates at the time of publication, provided for information only — nothing here is financial advice or a guarantee of accuracy.

2026-07-20