The GREENLAND Wealth Project

Overview

Greenland, the world’s largest island, occupies a unique position in the contemporary global order, defined by a stark paradox between its immense latent natural wealth and its fragile, mono-structured current economy. Physically, the island is a continental-scale repository of critical resources—ranging from the world’s cleanest freshwater reserves stored in the Ice Sheet to vast, undeveloped mineral provinces containing the essential building blocks of the green energy transition. Politically and economically, however, it remains a small, vulnerable actor, heavily dependent on a single marine ecosystem for its immediate solvency and on the Kingdom of Denmark for its long-term fiscal stability.

The island’s economy is currently navigating a period of profound uncertainty and potential transformation. The gross domestic product (GDP), recorded at approximately $3.326 billion in nominal terms in 2023 , supports a high standard of living for its small population, yet this prosperity is structurally precarious. The economy is characterized by a "hyper-specialization" in fisheries, a sector that accounts for over 90% of export value and, in recent assessments, up to 98% of total export revenue. This extreme concentration renders the national treasury uniquely susceptible to two volatile variables: the biological health of marine stocks in the Davis Strait and the fluctuations of global seafood commodity prices.

Current economic indicators signal a looming stagnation. Real GDP growth, which stood at a modest 0.8% in 2024, is projected to collapse to near-zero (0.2%) in 2025. This deceleration is not merely a cyclical downturn but a structural warning signal. It reflects the biological limits of the current "Blue Economy" and the urgent necessity for diversification. The government’s strategy, therefore, rests on activating two dormant pillars of the economy: the "Middle Earth" mineral wealth, specifically Rare Earth Elements (REEs), and the "Deep Earth" potential of renewable hydropower.

Surface: Current Economy (Fisheries)

Greenland's economy is defined by a monolithic dependence on the marine ecosystem, with fisheries accounting for over 95% of goods exports. The industry is anchored by two keystone species: Cold-water shrimp (Pandalus borealis) and Greenland Halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides), which together drive the trade balance. While Royal Greenland dominates the industrialized offshore fleet targeting global markets like China and the US, a vast artisanal fleet supports coastal communities. However, the economy faces severe headwinds in 2025, with growth stagnating at 0.2% due to biological changes in the Davis Strait and fluctuating global seafood commodity prices, highlighting the urgent need for diversification beyond this single biological asset.

Middle Earth: Rare Earth Elements

The Gardar Province in Southern Greenland hosts the Ilímaussaq Alkaline Complex, a geological formation containing some of the world's largest deposits of Rare Earth Elements (REEs). The sector is bifurcated into two major projects: the Tanbreez deposit and the Kvanefjeld deposit. Tanbreez is strategically positioned as a Western alternative to Chinese supply, boasting 4.7 billion tonnes of ore with a unique enrichment in Heavy Rare Earths (27% HREE) and low radioactivity. Conversely, the massive Kvanefjeld project (1 billion tonnes) remains stalled by Act No. 20 due to its high uranium content, illustrating the complex interplay between geological wealth, environmental politics, and global strategic competition for critical minerals.

Deep Earth: Energy & Potential

Greenland has successfully decoupled its electricity sector from fossil fuels, achieving a renewable energy share of approximately 70-87% through the aggressive development of hydropower. Lacking a national grid due to extreme topography, the country relies on 'islanded' micro-grids powered by glacial meltwater plants like the 45 MW Buksefjord facility, which supplies the capital via the world's longest fjord-crossing transmission span. Future strategy focuses on expanding this capacity to 90% and exploring 'Power-to-X' technologies, converting excess glacial water energy into green hydrogen to decarbonize the maritime transport sector and power future energy-intensive mining operations.

Conclusion

Greenland stands at a developmental crossroads. The data analyzed in this report confirms that while the Surface Economy (fisheries) has provided a foundation of welfare and stability for decades, it has reached its asymptotic limit. The stagnation of GDP growth in 2024-2025 is a mathematical inevitability of a mono-economy dependent on a finite biological resource.

The future prosperity of the island depends on successfully activating the Middle Earth (REEs) without compromising the environmental integrity of the Surface. The Tanbreez project emerges from the data as the Golden Key — a project that satisfies the economic need for revenue, the strategic need for Western alliance integration, and the political need for low-radiation extraction. Underpinning this entire transition is the Deep Earth (Hydropower), which ensures that Greenland’s industrialization remains one of the greenest in the world.

The integration of these three sectors—Fisheries providing stability, Mining providing growth, and Hydropower providing sustainability—constitutes the Greenlandic Model for the 21st century. The success of this model will depend not on discovering more resources, but on the astute management of the complex geopolitical and environmental trade-offs they entail.